Obama Wins in Wyoming

Welcome to the snow day edition of Fear and Blogging!!!

It looks like the Democrats of Wyoming have finally landed a place in presidential politics. Obama has racked up another caucus victory, and a another mountain west victory. The Clinton people were already downplaying the significance of the caucus before it even started, but the fact that the entire Clinton family has been activly campaigning in Wyoming for the past few days is pretty telling about whether they were actually conceding the state or not.

Clinton's people keep saying that she should be the nominee because she is winning in the big states that matter like Ohio, California, New York, New Jersey, etc. Well, it seems like the rhetoric is backfiring on the Clintons; if they don't feel as though the voters in smaller states matter for a Democratic victory in November then those voters aren't going to vote for them. This is sort of a weak argument when faced with the fact that it is unlikely that California or New York will go Republican regardless of who the Democratic nominee is. It also ignores the polls which show Obama winning with more states, and by a larger margin against McCain.

Following Obama's victory in Wyoming the campaign will now shift for a few days to Mississippi. Obama is expected to do well in Mississippi as well, which combine with Wyoming will probably erase the 10-15 net gain in delegates that Clinton won on Tuesday. This leaves a 6 week gap before the final large contest.

My guess is that as of right now Clinton will win Pennsylvania, but not by more than a few points. As of right now she is leading Obama in the polls by 10-15 points, but Sen. Obama seems to be able to dwindle away those leads when he has a good chance to campaign in a state. The demographics of Pennsylvania are similar to those of Ohio, with a similar political situation. PA's governor has endorsed Sen. Clinton. But if Sen. Obama is able to either pull off a win here, or at least narrow Sen. Clinton's margin of victory, I can't see Sen. Clinton winning the remainder of contests following April 22nd.

I'd say that Obama is still the odds on favorite for the Democratic nomination.

What to do about FL and MI

The new war in the Democratic campaign for president is about whether or not to seat the delegates from the states of Florida and Michigan. Florida and Michigan held their primary elections prior to February 5th, thus violating DNC rules. The states are going back and forth with Howard Dean and the Democratic National Committee about the controversy. The Clinton and Obama campaigns are also weighing in; Sen. Clinton wants the delegates to be seated while Sen. Obama's campaign would rather hold another primary or caucus.

The tragedy here lies with the disenfranchised voters of each of these states, though the states are to blame. I find it unreasonable to leave out people from the process at the convention, but it also unfair for Sen. Obama suffer for following DNC rules. The only reasonable way to solve this delima seems to be to have another election. I am not saying this simply as an Obama supporter, but out of fairness to both the campaigns and the voters.

Is it fair to seat Michigan's delegates when Sen. Obama's supporters didn't even have a chance to vote for him because his name did not appear on the ballot? Of course not, and in a proportional system for allotting the delegates, it is unreasonable to believe that Obama would not have at least won a portion of Michigan's delegates had there been a real contest. The DNC threatened candidates who campaigned early in Florida, where Clinton also won, so should Obama also suffer for following the rules? Anyone who will take of their Obama or Clinton partisan blinders would be able to see that it is both not fair to leave people out, and it is unfair to punish a candidate for following the rules.

So that leaves one option in the name of fairness; hold a new primary. While each of these states are now complaining that a new primary a caucus will be costly, shouldn't they have considered the implications and or repercussions for their actions? They were warned by the DNC not to hold early primaries. They didn't follow the rules, and now they are turning around and saying that Howard Dean is being irresponsible. Howard Dean is not responsible for disenfranchising the voters of Florida and Michigan, it is their own selfish state legislatures and governors. These states thought that they could have more clout if they voted early, but as it turns out the conventional wisdom about this primary season was wrong. States like Wyoming and Mississippi who elected to hold their votes later are having a bigger impact on this race because of their patience.

The states of Florida and Michigan should have a new vote in the name of fairness. Don't disenfranchise the voters, and don't punish candidates who follow the rules set out by the DNC.

The Rush Limbaugh Strategy

Aparently Rush Limbaugh instructed his listeners to "crossover" and vote in the Democratic primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont last Tuesday. His instructions included the request that his listeners not only vote by Democratic ballot, but also that they vote for Hillary Clinton to keep the Democratic race going. I suppose that a wide open race for the Democrats is supposed to benefit John McCain, the Republican candidate that Rush says he is considering not voting for. So Rush wants to keep the Democratic race wide open so that the guy he is not voting for has a chance to gain ground? Someone better make sure Rush hasn't been popping any pills lately.

I'm not sure I understand the logic behind this strategy. If you watched the coverage of the March 4th primaries, you probably noticed the lopsided coverage as I did. John McCain locked up the Republican nomination, yet the entire night was dedicated to the Obama/Clinton race. So basically, supposing that Rush's listeners were the deal breaker for Clinton on March 4th then wouldn't Rush actually be helping to focus MORE attention on the Democrats? As long as this primary race keeps going, all of the attention will be on the Democrats. This isn't because of the "liberal media bias" that I can already almost hear coming out of Rush's mouth, but because that is where the interest and the story are.

So my advice as a Democrat is this: please let Rush continue to direct his listeners in the remaining primaries. The Democratic party isn't divided, we just havn't picked out who the winner of our version of "Survivor" is. Either way, most of us are happy with who our eventual nominee will be. The GOP, however, could probably use someone to unite them behind McCain. So keep wasting your time by keeping the Democrats and Sens. Obama and Clinton in the news. We will take the free press. Oh yeah, keep bitching about how aweful your candidate with cross-apeal is too. Seems like you've figured out a sure fire formula for loosing in Novemember.

A primary and a petition in Hamilton County

Update:

I have spoken to Chris Dole's campaign about my proposals for the upcoming Democratic County Central Committee meeting, and he has advised me not to propose that the Democratic Party endorse his canidacy for County Commission. He says that it could actually hurt his chances for ballot access because the Board of Elections could claim that he did not file as in independent in good faith. I wrote the Dole campaign back to let them know that I will be available to help them in any capacity that I can. I will continue to update F and B readers about Chris Dole's historic race for County Commission.

First of all, I know I've been a bad blogger, but I assure you that I am back. Hopefully we can get Ron up and rolling here soon too. Now on to the content:

It has now become clear that Sen. Clinton is the winner of the primary in Ohio. While I voted for Obama and will continue to support his candidacy as the primary calander moves on, I congratulate Sen. Clinton on a hard fought victory. It is also aparent now that John McCain has gone from being the presumptive Republican nominee to having enough delegates to be the nominee. It seems as though the help of Gov. Strickland helped Sen. Clinton through Ohio's Apalaichan belt. I could sit here and analize who voted for Clinton and who voted for Obama, but the fact is that Hillary Clinton won more votes than Barack Obama in Ohio.

As for our countywide races, it appears as though Vic Wulsin and Jean Schmidt will get their rematch in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District. Vic Wulsin performed very well against Schmidt in 2006, and is poised to maybe gain victory in what is looking to be a very Democratic year. The Democratic primary race has been smeared by mudslinging between Vic Wulsin and her opponent Steve Black. Hopefully 2nd District Democrats can all line up behind Vic now so that she can beat the embarassment that is Jean Schmidt.

The other "primary" that took place in Ohio was candidate Christopher Dole submitting his petitions to the board of elections to appear on the November ballot for the office of County Commissioner. His campaign is reporting that he collected over 4,700 signatures, well over the 2,800 needed. Hopefully his petitions will pass what will probably be the high level of scrutiny leveled against them by Chairmen Burke and Vincent, the local Democratic and GOP chairs who also have seat on the board of elections.

Another primary winner today is me! I know I recieved at least on vote in an unopposed race for Democratic County Central Committee. I plan on introducing a resolution this year to endorse Chris Dole for county comissioner, as well as one to prevent our party from challenging petitions for independent candidates based on the candidate's party registration.

Anyway, I'm not sure if anyone is still reading this blog since I have let it go inactive for so long, but if you are thank you. Fear and Blogging is back!