Is the Window of Opportunity to Beat Mean Jean quickly Closing?

This week has not been a good week for the already battle bruised Victoria Wulsin. There has been a group of stories to come out of the race for Ohio's 2nd Congressional District that seem to help Jean Schmidt, and hurt Dr. Wulsin. I wouldn't concede this race just yet, but one thing is becoming clear; it seems like Jean Schmidt is starting to learn how to become a less polarizing and more effective congresswoman.

The first damaging story came from the DCCC who did not include Ohio's Second Congressional District in its "Red to Blue" program. This is a program that focuses money and attention from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to races that they feel are competitive in districts with a GOP incumbent. While Steve Driehaus, Democratic candidate in Ohio's 1st District which neighbors the 2nd District, does appear on the list, Dr. Wulsin does not. The DCCC has said, however, that this is only the first round of anouncements in its 2008 "Red to Blue" program, and that the 2nd District race may very well end up on one of the future lists. Either way, Congresswoman Schmidt is touting this list as evidence that the Democrats will not be trying as diligently as before to unseat her. She narrowly won reelection in 2006 with 50.5% of the vote against a well funded Dr. Wulsin.

The next damaging story comes from Iraq War veteran, Paul Hackett. Paul Hackett was Jean Schmidt's Democratic opponent in the 2005 special election in which she was narrowly picked to replace former Congressman Rob Portman. It was Hackett's strong showing in a reliably GOP district (Bush won 65% of the vote in the 2nd District in 2004) that propelled the DCCC to view Jean Schmidt as a weak incumbent. Hackett, however, this week said that he too believes that the window is closing on the opportunity for the Democrats to beat Jean Schmidt. Hackett cites the improvements that Jean Schmidt has made after two terms in congress. She does seem to have become less abrasive, and less combatant than when she first entered and made the infamous "cowards cut and run" speech on the House floor. Hackett also refers to some of Wulsin's "issues and problems and challenges" as a candidate, possibly referring to the questions surrounding malariotherapy and her work with the Heimlich Institute.

The third story that is hurting Wulsin is the recent story about a bi-partisan bill that Jean Schmidt is working on with Congressman James Oberstar of Minnesota. The bill would supply aide to pregnant teenagers who are looking to give up their baby for adoption. It seems to me that this is a good piece of pro-life legislation. I am happy to see a pro-life candidate working on making adoption an easier choice rather than simply attacking abortion rights.

With all of these stories coming out this week, it does force Democrats to wonder if the 2nd District is now a missed opportunity. Please do not think that I am in any way warming up to Jean Schmidt, I still hope that Dr. Wulsin defeats her in November. However, the Wulsin campaign is going to need to pull out all of the stops and really pound ahead this time. I think that if Jean Schmidt is to win this election, her incumbency in the 2nd District is all but entrenched.

Trouble for GOP in congress?

While yesterday's special election in Illinois was drown out by the news of Obama's victory in Wyoming, there certainly are reasons for the GOP to be scared of their congression prospects this fall. Democrat Bill Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis in the special election to replace Dennis Hastert, the former Speaker of the House. Dennis Hastert announced shortly after the begining of the 110th Congress that he would be retiring, and decided last fall to resign before completing his final term.

The Republicans should be scared about this win for the Democrats for three reasons. This was a reliably GOP district stretching from the western cusp of Chicago to the banks of the Mississippi River. Congressman-elect Foster won this district by a narrow margin of 52% of the vote, but even a narrow margin of victory for a Democrat in a GOP district like this one is impressive. This is a seat that was held for more than twenty years by a staunch conservative. Former Speaker Hastert holds the record of being the longest serving Republican Speaker of the House. This former GOP powerhouse's district has just gone to the Democrats.

The second reason that the GOP should be scared are the issues of the special election. Bill Foster did not run as a conservative Democrat; he ran opposed to the war in Iraq saying that he would be a reliable anti-war vote. Oberweis seemed to counter with a message claiming that the surge is working. John McCain, who lent some of his time and money to this campaign, is running his campaign for president based on the success of the surge and possible victory in Iraq. If this message is no longer resonating in reliable GOP districts, then where will it work on the campaign trail?

The third reason that the Republicans should be scared is that the fundraising advantage that the Democrats already hold in the DCCC will undoubtedly only be bolstered by a victory in GOP territory. Minority leader Boehner has already told his fellow house members to "get off their asses" and start fundraising. Looks like John Boehner's dream of becoming Speaker of the House is slowly slipping through his fingers doesn't it?

The Rush Limbaugh Strategy

Aparently Rush Limbaugh instructed his listeners to "crossover" and vote in the Democratic primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont last Tuesday. His instructions included the request that his listeners not only vote by Democratic ballot, but also that they vote for Hillary Clinton to keep the Democratic race going. I suppose that a wide open race for the Democrats is supposed to benefit John McCain, the Republican candidate that Rush says he is considering not voting for. So Rush wants to keep the Democratic race wide open so that the guy he is not voting for has a chance to gain ground? Someone better make sure Rush hasn't been popping any pills lately.

I'm not sure I understand the logic behind this strategy. If you watched the coverage of the March 4th primaries, you probably noticed the lopsided coverage as I did. John McCain locked up the Republican nomination, yet the entire night was dedicated to the Obama/Clinton race. So basically, supposing that Rush's listeners were the deal breaker for Clinton on March 4th then wouldn't Rush actually be helping to focus MORE attention on the Democrats? As long as this primary race keeps going, all of the attention will be on the Democrats. This isn't because of the "liberal media bias" that I can already almost hear coming out of Rush's mouth, but because that is where the interest and the story are.

So my advice as a Democrat is this: please let Rush continue to direct his listeners in the remaining primaries. The Democratic party isn't divided, we just havn't picked out who the winner of our version of "Survivor" is. Either way, most of us are happy with who our eventual nominee will be. The GOP, however, could probably use someone to unite them behind McCain. So keep wasting your time by keeping the Democrats and Sens. Obama and Clinton in the news. We will take the free press. Oh yeah, keep bitching about how aweful your candidate with cross-apeal is too. Seems like you've figured out a sure fire formula for loosing in Novemember.

Will the Democrats' split decision help Democrats in November?

The pundits and media are speculating about what exactly will determine who will be the Democratic nominee as it becomes increasingly likely that neither Senator Obama or Senator Clinton will have enough delegates amassed. With the Republicans already having a de facto nominee with John McCain, many worry that the GOP will be able to campaign vigorously while the Democrats do not have a candidate to respond.



The long Democratic campaign for president, however, may actually be helping the Democratic Party. It has forced Democrats to compete for votes in states that have been ignored in the past 2 election cycles. Before Super Tuesday, Sen. Obama held a rally in Idaho. When was the last time a Democratic candidate for president even visited the state of Idaho? The Democrats have basically conceded the giant L shape that cuts through the map of the United States comprised of the Great Plains and Southeast for the past 20 years, while taking support on the West Coast and in the Northeast for granted. The battle for the White House has been fought in the trenches of the midwest.



This split decision primary has forced the two remaining Democratic candidates to compete for every single delegate in every single state and terrirtory. This battle for delegates has forced Democrats to campaign in states that they have written off for years. With the candidates campaigning in these states, and Howard Dean creating a "50 state strategy" for the Democratic Party, many states that are considered in the "red state" column may be in play for Democrats.



I'm not saying that we should count on Idaho or Utah to vote Democrat in November, but I do think that many of the voters in these states apreciate the candidates actually stopping by to spread thier message. It certainly says something for a candidate like Barack Obama when he can turnout nearly 20,000 people in a small conservative state like Idaho to hear him speak.



With primaries scheduled through June, the Democrats may have to battle it out until the end of Spring before we know who will be going to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates. All of these primary dates also include small numbers of states; therefore the candidates can focus exclusively on these contests. Following the big make or break primary for Senator Clinton on March 4th in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island comes states that have been more difficult for Democrats in the past. Sens. Obama and Clinton will likely be campaigning for the support of voters from Mississippi, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, South Dakota, and Nebraska.



This long campaign through unfamiliar terroitory may ultimately help build support for the eventual Democratic nominee. It will at least do something that has not happened for several election cycles; give every voter in every state a voice when it comes to who will be the next president.

Hamilton County Commisioner's race

As many of you may or may not know, the local Hamilton County Democratic and Republican Parties decided to make the voters' choice for them when it comes to many county wide races this fall. The deal struck between the two parties has allowed Democratic Hamilton County Commissioner Todd Portune to run unopposed, while Republican Greg Hartman will run unopposed for the seat being vacated by Pat DeWine. In addition to Democrat Todd Portune being allowed to run without opposition, Democratic County Coroner Odell Owens will run unopposed. Since the Republicans have let these two off the hook, the Democrats have agreed to let Country Prosecutor Joe Deters have another four years, as well as agreeing not to run judges in 10 of 12 contests this fall.

I think all us can agree that this is a bad deal for voters, regardless of which party we support, what our particular ideology is when it comes to politics, or even if we support all of these candidates. The justice system is broken in Hamilton County, yet the Democrats are going to let the same Republicans who have been screwing it up for the past 10 years continue to do so. The reason that I think the Democrats made this concession to Republicans is because of fear of a candidate rising out of the ranks of the strong anti-tax movement who opposed the sales tax increase that Commissioners Portune and Pepper created last year. It was defeated by a ballot initiative in the fall. Tim Burke, Hamilton County Democratic Party Chairman, made this deal to ensure that the Democratic Party continues to hold a majority in the County's most powerful governing body.

There are a few things we can all do, however, to change the way things are being done. First, there is a man by the name of Chris Dole who plans on running as in independent for Hamilton County Commissioner. He needs to collect 3,000 signatures of registered voters in Hamilton County by 4pm March 3rd in order to appear on the November Ballot. If he succeeds in collecting enough valid signatures, he will be running against Greg Hartmann. You can sign one of his petitions to help him get on the ballot.

Another thing that we can all do is run for precinct executive in the Republican or Democratic Primary. This opportunity, unfortunately, will not be available to any of you who are not already running until 2010. Many precincts don't have anyone serving, and all you have to do is either gather 5 signatures to appear on the ballot, or file a declaration of candidacy to run as a write-in candidate. If you are running unopposed (as nearly all precinct executives do) all you have to do is vote for yourself to win election. As a precinct executive you are responsible for selecting party leadership. I know I will be doing my part to change how the Democratic Party functions this year, I hope everyone reading this will also want to get involved to make their party of choice more respectful of the voters as well.